Hot Tape – Upstream Alpha

The AI Trade Is Getting Bigger and More Fragile at the Same Time

Micron went up 10% on Monday. Then it dropped 10% on Tuesday. Then it recovered most of that by the close. That is not normal price discovery. That is a crowded theater with a strobe light. This is a stock that has already tripled this year. The company did not suddenly become 10% better on … Read more

The Picks-and-Shovels AI Trade Is Growing Up. That Means We Need to Go Further Upstream.

There is a moment in every investment theme where the smart-money trade becomes the obvious-money trade. The AI infrastructure buildout might be hitting that moment right now. When Caterpillar’s power generation revenue is growing 41% year over year and the stock is up more than 60% in 2026, something has changed. When Eaton is posting … Read more